In a little over 24 hours, the most talked about and potentially important free agency period in the history of the NBA will begin. July 1st will mark the donning of a new era, with some of the league’s biggest stars looking for new homes or deciding to stay put with their current team. It’s anybody’s guess as to where these players will wind up, but that hasn’t stopped the media craze from hitting the scene. There have been more “unnamed sources” and “certain agents” making claims in the last two weeks than there are sources and agents in the NBA. Everyone wants to feel like they have the inside scoop, taking the smallest rumor and turning it into fact. While no one, including the players themselves, know where the future will take them, we do know that things will be changing drastically in the NBA over the next few weeks. Here’s my take on just how important this offseason is and where certain players will call home in 2010.
Seemingly every conversation about the 2010 free agency list begins with the best of the bunch, LeBron James…and this article will be no different. While some (myself included) believe there will be more important decisions made this offseason than where King James winds up, he is certainly the first domino that needs to fall.
Despite numerous reports (remember those unnamed sources and agents?) saying James is destined for Chicago or Miami, the only FACT we know is that Cleveland will have the edge. James said so in his only interview, with Larry King, saying his hometown has the edge because of the past he has there. Also helping to give Cleveland the edge in the “LeBron Sweepstakes” is the extra $30 million they can offer him in his max contract.
James is in the business of winning championships and cementing his legacy as one of the game’s best players, but he’s also in the business, period. Money is big to James, as it would be with anyone attempting to sign a nine-figure contract. The Cavaliers will be able to give James an extra $6 million a year, making Cleveland the optimal destination based on cash. The option of a sign-and-trade is a possibility that would allow James to have his cake (the extra $6 million) and eat it too (preference to go wherever he wants). However, that’s a lot more complicated than he’ll want to make it.
The Cavaliers have experience in many areas but, because of it, are one of the oldest teams in the league. Post-monetary factors, James will need to decide whether that experience is primed to make a championship run or about to fade into the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference. It’s possible the Cavaliers are waiting on James to decide on a coach (although they have said James will have no say in the hiring), but if he decides the roster is in decline, he’ll most likely be done calling Ohio home for the next five seasons.
The next logical place for James to suit up in 2010 is Chicago. The Bulls have done everything right this summer in clearing up enough space to bring in two max-contract free agents, and their remaining roster is ready to compete for a championship. Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah have to be the most desired companions on a team, sans Dwyane Wade (which we’ll get to), to free agents. A young point guard and a developing big man makes for quite the foundation for a franchise, and that’s even before James comes into the picture.
Some worry that the addition of James will slow down Rose’s progression, but let’s not forget that James made Mo Williams an All Star in Cleveland. Rose’s game will change with James on the court, not get better or worse.
Off the court, Chicago has everything James is looking for. In order to be considered the best, you must beat the best. Since James can’t physically beat out Michael Jordan for the title of best ever, he’ll have to accomplish what No. 23 did in the same city and building. If James can also find his Scottie Pippen in this free agent class (Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer?), he’ll be that much closer.
James would also be close to his hometown (or at least closer than if he chose any other destination) and in a big time market, something we can all agree he will be looking for when the clock strikes midnight on Thursday. But entering the spotlight that the greatest player ever created can be intimidating, even for a superstar of James’ caliber, meaning Chicago might not appeal to him. Creating your own legacy in Chicago is no easy task. In fact, it might be impossible.

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade would make for one of the most dynamic 1-2 duos in the history of the NBA. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)
Speaking of potential legacies forming, let’s bring the Miami Heat into the discussion. It’s all but signed and sealed that Wade will be back in Miami, looking for his second championship and beyond. With just three players under contract, Pat Riley is setting up to be able to bring in three max-contract free agents. Scary thought, huh?
The three that have been discussed most prominently as teammates in Miami are Wade, James, and Bosh. Focusing specifically on James, he’d have a legitimate shot at creating one of the greatest teams in NBA history. At worst, the Heat would start the second (James), fifth (Wade), and 10th (Bosh) players in the league. My brother Jack and I could start at shooting guard and center to fill out the lineup and the Heat would still win 60 games. It’s no secret James loves the spotlight, and what better way to stay in it for years to come than by starting a dynasty with two other superstars?
And forget that extra $6 million a year he would earn in Cleveland. That will be taken care of in the form of endorsement deals the three would earn by playing together. LeBron is truly a businessman when push comes to shove, so you know this scenario has run through his head at least once.
And while we’re on the topic of money (I know you love these transitions), let’s bring the New Jersey Nets into the picture. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov has plenty of it and will sure to let James know when they meet on July 1 in Akron, the site where James will meet with all teams.
Past Prokhorov and his deep pockets, the Nets have an underrated amount of factors going in their favor that could persuade James to sign on with the Nets. Just like the Bulls, the Nets have an excellent core forming in Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and Brook Lopez that could entice James into building a championship contender.
Jay-Z, one of James’ best friends and mentor, is a minority owner for the Nets, something that can’t hurt them when it comes down to decision time. The Nets will also be moving to Brooklyn in two years, meaning James could really have the possibility to create his own legacy with a brand-new team. At the same time, the Nets will play in Newark while their stadium is being built in Brooklyn and, well, no one wants to be in Newark.
Right across the Hudson River, the New York Knicks are quickly losing ground on James’ services. They had to cancel a major event in New York after James announced he would be meeting with teams in Ohio, and shaky front office personnel overshadowed the appeal of the biggest market in the NBA.
However, the Knicks have money to spend and it’s hard to rule out anything when it comes to James’ and free agency. They have just four players under contract, including Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, two underrated players who would see a major boost with James on the court with them.
This also means the Knicks will have enough money under the cap to sign two max-contract free agents. If James can convince a player like Bosh or Joe Johnson that they can win in New York and that it’s the right city to be in, you can bet it will happen.
So what does it all mean at the end of the day? Well, for two days at least it will mean nothing. James literally has hundreds of different factors he will have to balance out when making his decision. His contract will be for five years but there’s a good chance James’ legacy, good or bad, goes down with whichever team he chooses.
If I was a betting man I’d have to give the early edge to Chicago, with Miami and New Jersey a close second/third. No one can deny or underestimate his love for Cleveland, but I think he’s looking for a fresh start. He still needs a ring, something he wasn’t able to get in Cleveland, and Chicago gives him the best chance right now, assuming they can bring in someone to go with him.
New Jersey can also offer James an underrated chance to bring home a title. If Derrick Favors pans out into an Amare Stoudemire clone, the future would look quite bright in Brooklyn.
Then there’s that fantasy-land, “this would only happen in a video game” scenario of Wade, Bosh, and James teaming up in Miami. James would certainly have to lose the “me-first” mentality with such high profile names next to him, but it would also give him the chance to be a part of something special. It would create buzz, be relatively safe, and give him more money than even he would know what to do with.
All that being said, no one knows. For all I know James would read my analysis and laugh at it, saying there’s no way he wants to share the spotlight with Wade, or that he never really liked Chicago, or that he thinks the Knicks are in good hands up front. The fact is no one, NO ONE, knows. So whenever you hear someone emphatically telling you about where a free agent will or will not wind up, just laugh knowing that not even LeBron knows.
The one thing we do know is that James’ decision will be exciting, nerve-wracking, and will change the NBA dramatically, regardless of where he winds up.
Let the games begin.